Neal SimonBinghamton Press & Sun Bulletin
Americans, especially in the Northeast, spend a lot of time outdoors and on the move in autumn.
That means there is a lot riding on how cold it's going to be and how much rain will drop — never mind, snow — during the meteorological fall season from Sept. 1 and Nov. 30.
Will we need rain ponchos for Friday night high school football games?
Will it be "shorts weather" or will jackets be a must for pumpkin picking and watching the leaves change?
Answers: Not sure, pick out your favorite shorts, and leave the wind breaker in the closet.
It will be warmer than typical over the next two or three months, most weather watchers agree, while the precipitation outlook has a slight lean to it being wetter than usual as well.
Will conditions favor brighter leaf colors in September and October? Temperatures might.
More: When is the first day of school in Southern Tier, Western New York? Find your school
Three-month forecast points to warming across NYS
Binghamton-based National Weather Service meteorologist Michael Murphy said long-range date patterns "strongly favor" above average temperatures in New York state and northern Pennsylvania for September through November.
What's average? Based on National Weather Service tracking over a 30-year period, Binghamton and the region’s average normal temperature is 60 degrees in September, about 49 in October and 38 degrees in November.
“Heading into fall and winter, La Niña is more than likely going to develop and that is the major pusher for this warmer than average pattern," Murphy said.
AccuWeather sees things heating up as well. Its 2024 U.S. fall forecast says the operative word is "warm," predicting the transition from summer temperatures to more autumn-like air arriving later and lasting longer.
AccuWeather expects a warm fall for nearly the entire country, calling it a "second summer" for most of the U.S.
"Outdoor projects and activities which you would typically see winding down during the fall season will continue well into the season for many areas," AccuWeather Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok said.
The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center’s temperature outlook map colors New York in shades of burnt orange and red, signifying a 60% to 80% chance that temperatures will be warmer than usual from September through November.
The central and western regions of New York have about 60% chance of experiencing above average daily temperatures, Murphy said.
Further east, warmer weather is up to 70% more likely than average.
That doesn't mean it won't get cold.
“I like to mention that there will be some occasional cool-down periods in there too, where it is below average," Murphy cautioned. "And there is always outside chances that the pattern changes."
Precipitation 3-month forecast: Slight lean toward more rain
The precipitation outlook is not as clear, with Western New York having an equal chance for either above average or below average precipitation.
The balance of the state has a 40% to 50% chance of seeing above average precipitation, according to the Climate Prediction Center.
The Southern Tier averages about 4 inches of rain in September, 3.75 inches in October and a little over 3 inches in November.
"Syracuse and Binghamton are leaning to above average precipitation but then when you go west, including Elmira, Rochester and Buffalo, there is equal chance of above or below average," Murphy said.
The weather pattern will change deep into fall. AccuWeather forecasters note the chances for snow will increase in November, but expect the white stuff mostly in other sections of the country, like the Rockies, the Northern Plains and the Upper Midwest.
Some snow could fall in the higher elevations of the Northeast, but "snow is not expected to be a big concern" for the more populated areas in the lower elevations, Long-Range Expert Pastelok said in the fall forecast.
Is this positive news for fall foliage fans in New York?
What does this all mean for leaf peepers? The ingredients could be right for a special season.
According to the U.S. Forest Service, temperature and moisture are the main influences on foliage, with a succession of warm, sunny days and cool, crisp but not freezing nights bringing about the most spectacular color displays.
Keep track of weekly color changes on the New York state Fall Foliage Report, which tracks the state's 11 vacation regions to assist travelers plan trip experiences.
As for an early prediction, The Old Farmer's Almanacsaysfall foliage will be at or near its peak by Friday, Oct. 11.
Email Neal Simon at nsimon@gannett.com.To get unlimited access to the latest news, please subscribe or activate your digital account today.
