If you’re expecting a big drop off in temperatures this September, you may be surprised to find that you need to keep your summer clothes out a bit longer.
This season looks to be unlike those in years past, as the common consensus is that New York will experience a warmer autumn than would normally be anticipated.
In fact, AccuWeather says people in our region should be prepared for a “second summer.” The forecasting agency warns that the dry conditions will elevate wildfire risk, and that there will be an increased risk of severe weather in and nearby New York throughout the fall.
That includes a heightened risk of tornadoes during a year that has already broken records for the number of tornadoes in New York.
Precipitation is also expected to exceed the typical averages -- with a warmer and wetter fall following a hot and rainy summer.
National Weather Service forecast for New York in fall 2024
Historically, according to National Weather Service Central Park data collected between 1991 and 2020, the average temperatures in New York City for September, October and November are 69, 58, and 48 degrees, respectively.
For fall fanatics, those conditions are nearly a given; the perfect setting for seasonal sweets and sips.
However, according to a three-month outlook issued by the National Weather Service, warmer-than-average temperatures are slated to overtake the majority of the U.S.
Here in the Northeast, the probability of warmer conditions is among the highest in the nation. New York City lies on the threshold of an area forecast with a 50% to 60% likelihood of elevated temperatures, and a stretch of land with a 60% to 70% chance of experiencing such conditions, as indicated in the three-month outlook.
Those predominantly west of the city have a 50% to 60% chance of seeing elevated temperatures. This includes Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse and nearly all of New Jersey.
Areas with even greater odds of 60% to 70% are situated to the north and east, including Long Island, much of eastern New York and Connecticut.
The National Weather Service does not specifically indicate by just how much temperatures will measure in above the average, however, a National Weather Service temperature outlook for September seconds the notion of warmer-than-average temperatures over the course of the month ahead.
In September, the entire state of New York holds a 50% to 60% likelihood of witnessing conditions hotter than those typical of the first month of fall.
The National Weather Service reports that the average high for Central Park in September is 76 degrees, according to data collected from 1991-2020.
More rain than usual anticipated
In addition to the unusaly high temperatures, the National Weather Service is forecasting that precipitation amounts will measure above normal for the season.
Typically, as reflected by NWS Central Park data collected from 1991 to 2020, September, October and November, receive 4.31, 4.38, and 3.58 inches of precipitation, respectively.
Although the western part of New York faces equal chances of more or less precipitation than usual, much of the state is given an increased likelihood of bearing more precipitation than average.
The central portion of the state is forecast with a 33% to 40% chance of seeing more rain than usual from September through November. Meanwhile, New York City, Long Island, and much of the Hudson River Valley, is given a 40% to 50% likelihood of experiencing elevated precipitation amounts this season.
While precise rainfall amounts are unknown at this time, the continuation of a potentially record-breaking hurricane season nearing its peak in early September, may ultimately determine rainfall measurements.
The AccuWeather forecast
AccuWeather bolsters the prediction of warmer temperatures across the country and is calling for something of a “second summer.”
The AccuWeather fall forecast states that the majority of the nation will experience a prolonged transition to autumn temperatures.
“Outdoor projects and activities which you would typically see winding down during the fall season will continue well into the season for many areas,” AccuWeather long-range expert Paul Pastelok said.
According to AccuWeather, the Pacific Northwest is the only region in the mainland U.S. that will see the early onset of cooler weather.
From September through November, temperatures in the southern half of New York will experience temperatures two to three degrees above normal, according to AccuWeather. Those in Western and Northern New York are slated to witness temperatures three degrees or higher than the average through November.
It’s the potential for dry conditions that has driven AccuWeather to warn of an elevated wildfire risk for parts of the Great Lakes and Northeast through the first half of fall.
The threat of severe weather
Although the forecast does not include an explicit precipitation forecast, AccuWeather notes the potential for severe weather throughout the season.
As waves of cool air shift south, they may collide with existing warm, humid air and ultimately trigger storms in central and eastern portions of the nation, as reported by AccuWeather. And although the U.S. has already experienced an active year for severe weather, the threat of tornadoes could arise with the onset of tropical storms, AccuWeather says.
“September tornado numbers can be mainly from tropical systems impacting the U.S.,” added Pastelok.
As we head into September and approach the peak of hurricane season, the threat of tropical storms is resurfacing. Already, AccuWeather meteorologists are monitoring tropical waves with the potential of developing into something more.
Should AccuWeather’s initial hurricane season forecast hold true, it could be a very active batch of months.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac forecast
The Old Farmer’s Almanac fall forecast indicates that it will be warmer in the U.S. this season, but only out in the west.
Nearly the entire East Coast is actually slated by the Old Farmer’s Almanac to see temperatures below the average. In New York, the western end of the state, Long Island, and New York City are forecast to experience cooler temperatures than normal. However, in central, northern, and eastern New York, temperatures are expected to sit right around the average.
As for precipitation, the forecast is mixed.
New York City and much of the East Coast is forecast to witness near-average rainfall amounts. Yet upstate, the story appears quite different.
Areas in the western end of the state, such as Buffalo and Rochester, are said to see more precipitation than usual this fall. Then, over in the central and eastern portions of the state, the Old Farmer’s Almanac foresees less rain than usual this autumn.
Despite this unique forecast, the Old Farmer’s Almanac seconds AccuWeather’s prediction of an active hurricane season.
more weather stories
- N.Y. weather: Long-range forecast issued for fall
- Atlantic hurricane season could ramp up to ‘near-historic’ levels, say forecasters
- N.Y. weather: When will it start to feel like fall?
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